Trade Policy and Jobs in Vietnam: The Unintended Consequences of US–China Tariffs

This paper uses the US–China tariffs of 2018–2019 as an exogenous shock to export opportunities in Vietnam to identify how trade policy affects job creation. Using a difference-in-differences framework, it first shows that the US tariffs on China increased the range of products exported by Vietnam to the United States in the two years after the tariffs hit. Using firm-level data, it then shows that this expansion in export opportunities led to job creation. Around 5 percent more jobs were created in firms most affected by the US–China tariffs. These effects are driven mostly by formal employment, and are strongest for women in foreign-owned firms.