Under pressure: assessing the vulnerability of two wetland birds to climate change

• Both species might gain areas in the future, but with low climatic suitability • Areas with high climatic suitability drastically decrease by 2090 for G. yetapa ; • H. dominicanus is insufficiently protected by Protected Areas and has lower mean suitability than G. yetapa ; • Both species lose climatic suitability under future scenarios; • Wetlands conservation is crucial for the maintenance of both species. Climate change drives significant shifts in species distributions, with consequences for individuals and entire ecosystems. While there has been an increase in studies examining how climate change may impact species ranges, a significant gap in understanding the implications for species associated with Neotropical inland wetlands and their biodiversity persists. Here, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to investigate the potential impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of two Neotropical birds, Gubernetes yetapa and Heteroxolmis dominicanus , which depend on wetlands for breeding. We hypothesized that both species should be affected by climate change, but G. yetapa would be less affected than H. dominicanus, due to its larger geographic range. We also tested the efficiency of protected areas (PAs) in the present and in the future using a gap analysis. Using three General Circulation Models, we forecasted ENMs for future scenarios (2050 and 2090) under three different Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 (optimistic), SSP3-7.0 (medium to high) and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic). Contrary to our expectations, our findings revealed range expansions for both species, but confirmed a decrease in areas with high suitability. As expected, H. dominicanus exhibited lower suitability in the future than G. yetapa . Furthermore, their presence in climatically favorable areas depends on the conservation of these areas and, in the future, on the species ability to reach them. Currently, 9.03% of the extent of occurrence for G. yetapa is covered by PAs, compared to only 1.62% for H. dominicanus . Our gap analysis shows that G. yetapa is considered protected in the present but partial gap in the future, while H. dominicanus is within the gap category. This study reinforces the importance of conserving wetlands for maintaining its biodiversity, since these areas may be the only refuge for these birds in the future. Furthermore, the availability and conservation of these habitats are key for the long-term survival of both species.