What does this research mean for the field?

Türkiye has emerged as the principal architect of Syria’s post-war order, advancing a long-term project of hegemonic consolidation with significant implications for Middle Eastern geopolitics. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.NOVEL_FINDING. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.CHALLENGES_CONSENSUS.

What question did this study set out to answer?

The article investigates Türkiye's strategies and influence in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime.

March 4, 2026Open Access

Turkish Regional Rivalry in Syria: Challenges and Strategies Following the Fall of the Assad Regime

Puntos clave

The article investigates Türkiye's strategies and influence in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime.
Analyzes Türkiye's military, economic, and diplomatic approaches.
Examines restructuring of Syrian armed forces and the role of proxy groups.
Considers the use of refugee repatriation for strategic goals.
Türkiye emerged as a dominant power, reshaping Syria’s military and economic landscapes.
The nation positioned itself as a primary architect of Syria's post-war order.
Goals include eliminating Kurdish autonomy and controlling trade and reconstruction efforts.

Resumen

This article examines Türkiye’s evolving role in post-Asad Syria through the theoretical lens of offensive realism. After December 2024, Türkiye has acted as the most assertive external power, employing a combination of military, economic, and diplomatic instruments to shape Syria’s transition. Militarily, Ankara has restructured Syrian armed forces, supported proxy groups, and advanced plans for long-term basing and defence-industrial cooperation, while simultaneously seeking to eliminate Kurdish autonomy along its southern frontier. Economically, Türkiye has embedded Syria’s reconstruction, energy recovery, and trade flows into its own networks, using refugee repatriation as both a humanitarian initiative and a tool of strategic leverage. The analysis concludes that Türkiye has emerged not merely as a stabilizer but as the principal architect of Syria’s post-war order, advancing a long-term project of hegemonic consolidation with enduring consequences for Middle Eastern geopolitics.

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