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This research aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on the land suitability for Coffea arabica in western Ethiopia.

Geospatial Modelling of Agro-climatic Suitability for Coffea arabica under CMIP6 Scenarios in the Western highlands of Ethiopia

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Assesses climate change impacts on Coffea arabica suitability in Ethiopia, suggesting adaptation strategies for farmers.

This research aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on the land suitability for Coffea arabica in western Ethiopia.
Utilized baseline climate data from 1981-2010 and future scenarios for 2041-2070 under CMIP6.
Employed MaxEnt model for projecting potential distribution of Coffea arabica.
Refined predictions using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to assess species response to climate scenarios.
Conducted field surveys for current species occurrence and used biodiversity data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility.
Coffea arabica suitability increases under SSP1-2.6 by +18.9% and SSP3-7.0 by +9.0%; marginal decrease of -2.0% under SSP5-8.5.
Future suitability varies significantly across agro-ecological zones, with gains in tropical-warm/humid areas and losses in tropical-warm/sub-humid areas.
Suitability shows an increase with altitude but a decrease with higher precipitation seasonality across all scenarios.

Chalchissa et al. (2026) studied this question.

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