Prospects for the Development of Renewable Energy in China until 2050 in the Context of the Climate Agenda: An Assessment of Investment Costs and Their Feasibility

• China's required renewable energy generation by 2050 is estimated at 36247 TWh/year • China's cost energy transition is estimated at least $20.2 trillion • China's transition to renewable energy won't reduce CO 2 emissions to 1990 levels • Energy costs and CO 2 emissions are lower with more investment in China's wind energy China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases and the world leader in electricity generation from renewable sources. As part of the Paris Agreement commitments and achieving carbon neutrality, the China National Renewable Energy Center has developed a scenario according to which by 2050 the share of renewable energy sources will be 58% in the energy consumption structure. In this paper, the investment for the transition to renewable energy were calculated based on forecast models of the energy consumption and population dynamics in China until 2050 and data on specific costs of photovoltaic modules and onshore wind power plants. Correspondingly, investment costs for China's energy transition should amount to about $20.2-$22.4 trillion. Assuming that renewable energy capacity replaces coal-fired thermal power plants in the country's energy system, national CO 2 emissions will be decreased by no more than 2.1 billion tons per year, which is insufficient to approach the historical emissions level (4 billion tons per year). By 2050, the electricity cost from renewable energy sources, agreed with a refinancing rate of 4% per annum, will rise to the current price electricity level in the country. Coal entrenched role in the energy balance complicates the energy transition and makes it expensive for China. Investments in wind energy are the most feasible, and to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and implement plans for the development of renewable energy. The optimal share of wind generation will be at least 37%, and solar – no more than 21%.