What does this research mean for the field?

Long-term global warming is associated with a decline in fertility rates, particularly in regions with low adaptive capacity such as Africa and the Middle East. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.NOVEL_FINDING. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.CHALLENGES_CONSENSUS.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To explore the relationship between global warming and fertility decline across different countries and regions.

March 8, 2026International Journal of Environmental Research and Public HealthOpen Access

Global Warming, Fertility, and Spermatogenesis Decline: Global and Regional Evidence from 195 Countries and Implications for Climate Adaptation Policy

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Authors

AAAli Amini BBBabak Behnam

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Overview

Investigates the link between global warming and fertility decline in diverse regions, highlighting adaptive capacity's role.

Key Points

To explore the relationship between global warming and fertility decline across different countries and regions.
Analyzed Total Fertility Rate (TFR) data from the World Bank from 1960 to 2023.
Used temperature anomaly data from NOAA and NASA.
Applied Pearson correlation and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models.
Conducted regional analyses for Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the Arctic.
Evaluated GDP per capita as a measure of economic development and adaptive capacity.
Found a strong global negative correlation between temperature anomalies and fertility (r≈−0.90, p<0.001).
In Africa and the Middle East, temperature anomalies significantly predict fertility decline even after controlling for GDP.
In other regions, such as South Asia and Europe, the effects of temperature become insignificant with GDP control, indicating socioeconomic modernization as a driver of fertility decline.
Highlighted that limited infrastructure in lower-income regions makes them more vulnerable to the effects of global warming on fertility.

Cite This Study

Amini et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69ada8b2bc08abd80d5bbdff https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph23030331

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March 8, 2026International Journal of Environmental Research and Public HealthOpen Access

Global Warming, Fertility, and Spermatogenesis Decline: Global and Regional Evidence from 195 Countries and Implications for Climate Adaptation Policy

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

AAAli Amini BBBabak Behnam

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Investigates the link between global warming and fertility decline in diverse regions, highlighting adaptive capacity's role.

Key Points

To explore the relationship between global warming and fertility decline across different countries and regions.
Analyzed Total Fertility Rate (TFR) data from the World Bank from 1960 to 2023.
Used temperature anomaly data from NOAA and NASA.
Applied Pearson correlation and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models.
Conducted regional analyses for Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the Arctic.
Evaluated GDP per capita as a measure of economic development and adaptive capacity.
Found a strong global negative correlation between temperature anomalies and fertility (r≈−0.90, p<0.001).
In Africa and the Middle East, temperature anomalies significantly predict fertility decline even after controlling for GDP.
In other regions, such as South Asia and Europe, the effects of temperature become insignificant with GDP control, indicating socioeconomic modernization as a driver of fertility decline.
Highlighted that limited infrastructure in lower-income regions makes them more vulnerable to the effects of global warming on fertility.

Cite This Study

Amini et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69ada8b2bc08abd80d5bbdff https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph23030331

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