Shared Clouds, Shared Harvests: The Effects of China's Agricultural Aid

Food security has become a central pillar of China's international development cooperation. This paper quantifies the effects of Chinese agricultural aid on staple crop production in low‐ and middle‐income countries over 2002–2022, using project‐level data from AidData merged with FAOSTAT and World Bank indicators. We find that Chinese agricultural aid significantly increases the harvested area, yield and total production of legumes and tubers, while effects on cereals remain limited. Impacts are stronger when assistance is provided through grants and loans and in countries facing severe food insecurity, high social fragmentation or tight resource constraints. Beyond production outcomes, agricultural aid is associated with improvements in child, infant and maternal health in recipient countries and with an expansion of China's exports of agricultural inputs. Overall, the results highlight the role of Chinese agricultural aid in strengthening global food security while deepening real economic linkages between China and recipient economies.