Mathematical modeling reveals cyclical fluctuations in hostility intensity during asymmetric warfare, highlighting key dynamics between forces.
A mathematical model of guerrilla warfare is proposed. The study analyzes the consequences derived from general assumptions about the dynamics of military engagements between regular armed forces and irregular formations such as guerrillas or insurgent groups. Possible outcomes of the conflict are classified, and relationships between the parameters of the opposing sides that lead to these outcomes are established. The model reveals conditions under which cyclical fluctuations in the intensity of hostilities arise, providing a theoretical framework for understanding the periodic nature of asymmetric warfare and its dependence on the balance of resources, strategic adaptability, and operational feedback between the adversaries.
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Zakharov et al. (2014) studied this question.
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