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March 30, 2026SHILAP Revista de lepidopterologíaOpen Access

Elevated TyG and TyHGB indices linked to up to ~76% higher T2D risk in the elderly.

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Why the study?

The longitudinal association and strength of alternative abdominal fat deposition indicators with T2D remained unclear across different FBG statuses.

Do elevated obesity- and lipid-related indices predict the onset of type 2 diabetes in community-dwelling elderly individuals?

Population

18,251 community-dwelling elderly individuals in Shenzhen, China

Comparison

Associations and predictive performance of six obesity- and lipid-related indices (BMI, WC, VAI, LAP, TyG, TyHGB)

Design

Prospective cohort study

Key result

Elevated TyG and TyHGB indices significantly increased the risk of incident type 2 diabetes in the elderly, with adjusted HRs of 1.76 and 1.37 per one-standard-deviation increase, respectively.

Authors

XHXiangyang HeDMDong-hui MaZLZheng Liu

Discussion

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Member takes

Overview

May serve as valuable screening tools in elderly; extends evidence for TyG and TyHGB as independent predictors of incident T2D.

Key Points

  • The study aims to evaluate the relationship between obesity and lipid-related indices and the onset of T2D in elderly individuals with varying FBG statuses.
  • Analyzed data from the BaHLS cohort study of elderly individuals in Shenzhen, China.
  • Examined six obesity and lipid-related indices along with FBG statuses.
  • Utilized multivariate Cox proportional hazards models and Generalized Additive Models to assess associations.
  • Employed ROC curve analysis to evaluate predictive performance of the indices and determine cutoffs.
  • 1,350 out of 18,251 participants diagnosed with T2D by end of 2022.
  • TyG had an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.76, indicating a strong association with T2D risk.
  • All indices demonstrated predictive ability for T2D (AUC > 0.5).
  • TyG and TyHGB exhibited superior predictive performance over other indices (AUC = 0.706 and 0.737, respectively).
  • Nonlinear relationships found for VAI, LAP, TyG, and TyHGB with T2D risk.

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=18,251)

Multicenter

No

Structured PICO

Do elevated obesity- and lipid-related indices predict the onset of type 2 diabetes in community-dwelling elderly individuals?

P
Population
Community-dwelling elderly individuals (aged ≥60 years) without type 2 diabetes at baseline
I
Intervention
Elevated novel obesity- and lipid-related indices (BMI, WC, VAI, LAP, TyG, TyHGB)
C
Comparator
Lower levels/quartiles of obesity- and lipid-related indices
O
Outcome
Incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) diagnosed during the follow-up periodhard clinical

Main Result

Effect estimate: HR 1.76 (95% CI 1.67-1.86)

p-value: p=<0.001

Novel lipid- and obesity-related indices, particularly TyG and TyHGB, are strong independent predictors of incident type 2 diabetes in elderly individuals and may serve as valuable screening tools.

Limitations

  • Physical activity levels and dietary intake were excluded due to data limitations
  • Self-reported questionnaire data may be susceptible to recall bias
  • Homogeneity of the study population limits generalizability to other ethnicities or regions
  • Risk predicted based solely on a single baseline measurement over a short two-year follow-up period

Cite This Study

He et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Type 2 Diabetes (n=18,251). Obesity- and lipid-related indices (TyG, TyHGB, VAI, LAP, BMI, WC) vs. Lower index levels (lowest quartile or per 1-SD decrease) was evaluated on Incidence of onset Type 2 Diabetes (HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.67-1.86, p=<0.001). Elevated TyG and TyHGB indices significantly increased the risk of incident type 2 diabetes in the elderly, with adjusted HRs of 1.76 and 1.37 per one-standard-deviation increase, respectively.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69ca1210883daed6ee094d01https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2026.1798687
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1Optimal obesity- and lipid-related indices for predicting type 2 diabetes in middle-aged and elderly Chinese2024 · 49 citations
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  4. 4Association of cumulative exposure and change patterns of triglyceride–glucose index combined with novel obesity indices with glycemic transitions in prediabetes: evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS)2026 · 3 citations
  5. 5Novel lipid indicators and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus among Chinese hypertensive patients: findings from the Guangzhou Heart Study2022 · 52 citations