What question did this study set out to answer?

This research investigates how the infectivity profiles in SIR epidemics influence the final size and outcome of the epidemic.

The final outcome of SIR epidemics with infectivity profiles

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A stochastic model examines the final outcome of SIR epidemics, suggesting implications for public health management.

This research investigates how the infectivity profiles in SIR epidemics influence the final size and outcome of the epidemic.
Developed a stochastic SIR model to analyze epidemic spread.
Utilized independent and identically distributed infectivity profiles to describe infectiousness over time.
Derived exact statistical outcomes related to final epidemic size.
Applied a generalization of a Sellke construction for analysis.
Connected results to death processes for further insights.
Provided exact distribution statistics for the final outcome of the epidemic.
Showed that the final outcome distribution is equivalent to that of an associated discrete-time epidemic process.
Results are applicable to multi-population epidemic scenarios.

F. G. Ball (2026) studied this question.

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