Mathematical apparatus for assessing possible damage during the seizure of radiation monitoring measuring instruments

The paper presents a mathematical apparatus for quantifying the cumulative losses that occur when measuring instruments used at stationary radiation monitoring stations are withdrawn. An integrated model is proposed that takes into account the potential damage from a decrease in the metrological availability of the system, as well as the direct costs of verification and transportation of devices. Three complementary approaches to risk assessment are considered: 1) a linear model describing the average expected behavior of a system with a uniform distribution of risks; 2) the Hurwitz criterion model, which allows taking into account the uncertainty of the development of radiation risks and making an assessment in the range from optimistic to pessimistic scenarios; 3) a power-law model reflecting the nonlinear nature of the increase in losses with a reduction in the coverage of the monitoring network. Analytical dependencies have been obtained to determine the optimal number of shipments of measuring instruments for verification and the threshold damage criterion, which characterizes the boundary of economic feasibility between centralized and commercial verification channels. The proposed approach forms a scientifically based basis for risk-based planning of verification measures and can be used in the development of regulatory documents and regulations for metrological support of radiation monitoring systems in the territorial bodies and institutions of the EMERCOM of Russia.