The Topology of Aging: Modeling Elderly Population Dynamics Through Complex Sectoral Networks in Rural Spain

This study analyses the socioeconomic interdependence of rural areas by examining whether similarity in primary sector economic structure leads to correlated patterns of demographic aging across municipalities in Northern Spain. We construct an economic network where municipalities are linked based on their proximity in a multivariate space of agricultural and forestry indicators. This novel network construction captures latent structural analogies beyond simple geographical adjacency. We then employ Poisson Network Autoregressive (PNAR) models to estimate the effect of this productive similarity on the spatial distribution of the elderly population (aged 65+). Our results provide robust evidence that municipalities with analogous primary sector profiles exhibit statistically related demographic aging patterns mediated through economic similarity networks. This finding suggests that local demographic changes are not isolated events but are shaped by broader regional economic structures. The study offers a new network‐based framework for understanding the spatial demographics of rural labor markets and has implications for targeted rural development policies.