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Trends in modelled HIV prevalence among transgender women in South Africa: National estimates, 2022–2026

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This research investigates changes in modelled HIV prevalence among transgender women in South Africa from 2022 to 2026.
Conducted a quantitative ecological analysis using Thembisa model estimates from 2022 to 2026.
Extracted annual HIV prevalence rates and 95% confidence intervals.
Employed a Mann-Kendall trend test to assess significance of changes.
Calculated absolute differences and prevalence ratios.
HIV prevalence among transgender women fell from 43% in 2022 to 40% in 2026.
National HIV prevalence remained stable at 13%.
The gap in prevalence between transgender women and the national average decreased from 30 to 27 percentage points.
Statistically significant downward trend confirmed (τ = -1.00, p = 0.017).

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Quantitative analysis reveals a decline in HIV prevalence among transgender women, suggesting ongoing disparities.

Tronic Sithole (2026) studied this question.

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