Key result
Upper tertile of amplified P-wave duration predicts ~102% higher incident AF risk.
Why the study?
Clinical risk factors identify individuals at risk of incident AF with only mediocre accuracy, prompting investigation into whether amplified P-wave duration can predict incident AF in the general population.
Does amplified P-wave duration predict incident atrial fibrillation in the general population?
Cohort (n=2,134)
Does amplified P-wave duration predict incident atrial fibrillation in the general population?
Effect estimate: HR 2.02
p-value: p=0.010
Amplified P-wave duration on a signal-modified ECG serves as a significant independent predictor of incident atrial fibrillation in the general population.
Background.Clinical risk factors identify subjects at risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) with only mediocre accuracy.Amplified P-wave duration (PWD) is a novel electrocardiographic marker for conduction delay in atrial cardiomyopathy, which in turn is associated with AF.Objective.The aim of this study is to assess whether amplified PWD can predict incident AF in the general population.Methods.Amplified PWD was assessed manually on a signal-modified electrocardiogram in 2,134 participants from the population-based Hamburg City Health Study.Incident AF during 5-year follow-up was defined as primary endpoint.Multivariable Cox regression models were constructed including significant clinical risk factors, ECG parameters and transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) parameters and the predictive power for the primary endpoint was evaluated.Results.Over a median follow-up of 5.5 years, 102 participants (4.8%) developed incident AF.The upper tertile of amplified P-wave duration was the only significant ECG-derived predictor for incident AF (Hazard Ratio [HR]: 2.02; p=.010) in the multivariable ECG-based model, alongside age (HR: 1.07; p=.013) and body mass index (HR: 1.08; p=.003), after adjustment for significant clinical risk factors (C-index: 0.764).A comprehensive combined ECG/TTE model achieved a C-index of 0.770, with age (HR: 1.07; p=.020) and left atrial volume (HR: 1.02; p=.020) remaining significant predictors. Conclusion.Amplified PWD as novel ECG-based marker predicts incident AF in a populationbased cohort and may provide a pragmatic ECG-derived marker of atrial cardiomyopathy for risk assessment beyond conventional risk stratification.
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KOCH et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Incident atrial fibrillation (n=2,134). Amplified P-wave duration (PWD) was evaluated on Incident AF during 5-year follow-up (HR 2.02, p=0.010). The upper tertile of amplified P-wave duration significantly predicted incident atrial fibrillation over a median 5.5-year follow-up (HR 2.02; p=0.010).
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