This article analyzes the dynamics of Russian-Saudi relations in the context of the systemic transformation of international relations and the transition to a polycentric world order (2015–2026). Drawing on the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism, the study proposes a multi-level explanatory model in which systemic incentives—the erosion of US hegemony, volatility in energy markets, and sanctions pressure—are mediated by domestic political variables: the high role of the state in the economy, national development strategies (Saudi Vision 2030 and the Russian concept of technological sovereignty), and the perception of threats by political elites. The obtained data indicate that the rapprochement between the two countries is not limited to a situational response to market conditions, but can be viewed as a natural result of the synchronization of internal imperatives for modernization and adaptation to structural shifts. The article introduces the concept of Saudi Arabia's "strategic triad," which presupposes a functional division of roles among the Kingdom's key partners: the United States in the security sphere, China in the area of economic development, and Russia as an energy balancer and geopolitical stabilizer. The theoretical foundation of the study is neoclassical realism. This approach, systematized in the works of G. Rose, allows for the integration of systemic stimuli—the distribution of power in the international system and the anarchic nature of international relations—with an analysis of the internal structure of states and the perception of threats by political elites. The scientific novelty of the research is determined by several interrelated aspects. For the first time, the Russian-Saudi partnership is systematically analyzed within the framework of neoclassical realism. This makes it possible to identify cause-and-effect relationships between structural changes in the international system, the internal development strategies of both countries, and their foreign policy behavior. An original model for the operationalization of neoclassical realism for the analysis of bilateral relations is proposed. The model takes into account the specificity of states with a high role of the state in the economy and allows for explaining both the synchronization of foreign policy courses and the preservation of elements of competition. In contrast to the energy-centric approach dominant in the literature, emphasis is placed on institutional and technological interdependence as factors in the sustainability of the partnership. This enables a shift from analyzing tactical coordination in energy markets to investigating the long-term strategic foundations of rapprochement.
Sobhan Sayyaran (Sun,) studied this question.