Biogeography and residence time influence the climatic niche shift of invasive plants in India

Identifying climatic niche dynamics of invasive species and the factors that drive them is important for assessing invasion risk and prioritizing management actions. Multispecies studies, mostly conducted at a global scale, compared climatic niches between the species' native and introduced ranges to assess the niche dynamics. We hypothesized that a species' socio‐ecological traits, biogeographic characteristics, and invasion history can influence its climatic niche dynamics, especially at a regional scale, and tested this hypothesis for 101 invasive alien plant species (IAPS) in India. We constructed a gridded environmental space from the species' distribution range and assessed their realized climatic niche dynamics in the analogue climate space. The interactive influence of 11 biotic and abiotic variables on the niche estimates was then assessed by regression models and mediation analysis based on seven hypothesized relationships. More than 60% of the species showed a climatic niche shift in India. A significantly higher expansion was observed in species that are perennial, inhabit freshwater habitats, originated from the Americas, and naturalized in the Asia‐Tropical. The regression analysis revealed minimum residence time and naturalized range size as the important variables for niche dynamics, whereas a significant negative relationship was found only between naturalized range size and niche expansion. Overall, our findings recommend exercising caution while forecasting invasion risk, as species undergoing climatic niche shifts in India could underestimate the invasion potential of these species. Given that biogeography and residence time drive the climatic niche shift of invasive species, we recommend considering these variables in the risk assessment framework and management actions for the IAPS in India.