We present an augmented version of the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method designed to generate probabilistic climate-change information from ensembles of climate model simulations. Compared to the original version, the augmented method includes consideration of multiple variables and statistics in the calculation of performance-based weighting. In addition, the model convergence criterion previously employed has been removed. The method is applied to the calculation of changes in mean values and the variability of temperature and precipitation over different sub-regions of East Asia, based on the recently completed CMIP3 multi-model ensemble.
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Xu et al. (2009) studied this question.
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