Uncovering the key bilateral trade linkages in the U.S. domestic food supply chain through disruption simulations

This paper uses counterfactual simulations to examine the impact of bilateral trade linkage disruptions on the U.S. agricultural and food trade system. Using an econometric gravity model, we estimate the relationship between disruptions and trade flows, identify critical state‐to‐state trade linkages whose disruption would significantly impact domestic trade and national welfare, and extend the analysis to the state level to measure the consequences of disruptions to individual states' interstate trade linkages. The findings offer valuable insights for mitigating the impacts of bilateral trade linkage disruptions and transport cost shocks on the U.S. agricultural and food trade system.