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June 20, 2017NatureOpen Access

Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals

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Authors

KOKevin J. OlivalEcoHealth AlliancePHParviez R. HosseiniEcoHealth AllianceCZCarlos Zambrana‐TorrelioGeorge Mason University

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Implication

Comparative analysis demonstrates host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover risk in wild mammals, highlighting priority targets for pandemic surveillance.

Key Points

  • Determine the host, viral, and environmental factors that govern viral diversity and predict cross-species transmission of mammalian viruses into humans.
  • Conducted a comprehensive comparative analysis of mammalian host-virus relationships while controlling for confounding variations in research effort.
  • Modeled predictors of zoonotic virus proportions using host taxonomy, phylogenetic distance to humans, human population overlap within host ranges, and viral traits such as phylogenetic host breadth.
  • Host phylogenetic relatedness to humans, host taxonomy, and human population density within a species range significantly predict the proportion of zoonotic viruses carried by a mammalian species.
  • Bats host a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders.
  • Phylogenetic host breadth and distinct viral traits reliably predict zoonotic capacity, establishing a predictive framework to assess the spillover risk of novel mammalian viruses.

Cite This Study

Olival et al. (2017) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69dadad71e19c8ae088359cahttps://doi.org/10.1038/nature22975
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