Does the MB-LATER score better predict very late recurrence of atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation compared to existing clinical scores?
The novel MB-LATER score demonstrates superior predictive ability for very late recurrence of atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation compared to existing clinical scores.
Reliable prediction of very late recurrence of atrial fibrillation (VLRAF) occuring >12 months after catheter ablation (CA) in apparently "cured" patients could optimize long-term follow-up and modify decision-making regarding the discontinuation of oral anticoagulant therapy. In a single-centre cohort of consecutive patients post radiofrequency AFCA, we retrospectively derived a novel score for VLRAF prediction. Of 133 consecutive post AFCA patients (mean age 56.9 ± 11.8 years, 63.9% male, 69.2% with paroxysmal AF) who were arrhythmia-free at 12 months (excluding 3-month "blanking period"), 20 patients expirienced a VLRAF during a 29.1 ± 10.1-month follow-up, with a 3-year cumulative VLRAF rate of 31.1%. The MB-LATER score (Male, Bundle brunch block, Left atrium ≥47 mm, Type of AF paroxysmal, persistent or long-standing persistent, and ER-AF = early recurrent AF), had better predictive ability for VLRAF (AUC 0.782) than the APPLE, ALARMc, BASE-AF2, CHADS2, CHA2DS2VASc or HATCH score (AUC 0.716, 0.671, 0.648, 0.552, 0.519 and 0.583, respectively), resulted in an improved net reclassification index (NRI) of 48.6-95.1% and better identified patients with subsequent VLRAF using decision-curve analysis (DCA). The MB-LATER score provides a readily available VLRAF risk assessment, and performs better than other scores. Validation of the MB-LATER score in other cohorts is underway.
Mujović et al. (Fri,) studied this question.