Spatial and temporal distribution of the impact of socioeconomic and policy factors on forest carbon sinks

Forest carbon sinks (FCS) are a key natural solution to climate change mitigation. This study aims to reveal the complexity of socioeconomic and policy factors affecting FCS, remote sensing was used to measure FCS. Geographically and temporally weighted regression models were then applied to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the factors affecting FCS. The results of the study show that (1) the FCS mean values are ranked in the following order: northeastern China, western China, central China and eastern China. (2) The impact of variables on FCS exhibits temporal heterogeneity. (3) GDP growth and urbanization interact through dual pathways. The carbon sink effects of technological interventions exhibit distinct spatiotemporal threshold characteristics. The ecological negative effects resulting from high-intensity chemical pest control in the eastern, central and western regions reveal the dual boundaries of technological application. The lag in industrial transformation in the central region leads to high-carbon industrial lock-in, which conflicts with the resource development model in the northeastern region.