The Power of Forests: A Study on the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of China’s Forestry Carbon Sinks from the Perspective of GIS-LCA Technology

Forest carbon sinks are a crucial component in achieving China’s “dual carbon” goals. This study integrates GIS-LCA technology to systematically examine the spatiotemporal evolution of China’s forest carbon sinks and quantitatively assess afforestation carbon sequestration efficiency and carbon sink influencing mechanisms. The research findings indicate: (1) From 2003 to 2022, China’s total forest carbon sink increased from 11.78 billion tons to 19.76 billion tons, with an average annual growth rate of 2.9%. This overall upward trend corroborates the research findings of other domestic scholars. The center of forest carbon sinks is mainly located in Shaanxi Province, showing a clear southeastward migration trend. (2) Forest carbon sink capacity exhibits significant regional differentiation: cold spot areas in the northeast gradually weakened, while hot spot areas in the west peaked in 2015 and subsequently declined. This shift reflects the complex interplay between climate change and human activities on carbon sink capacity. (3) Provincial-level analysis of afforestation carbon sequestration efficiency based on GIS-LCA technology reveals notable spatial disparities, with a national average of 579 t CO₂/km². Eastern provinces performed the best, averaging 749.6 t CO₂/km², while central and western provinces showed similar efficiencies at 471.5 t CO₂/km² and 494.4 t CO₂/km², respectively. This study provides theoretical support for advancing the high-quality development of China’s forest carbon sinks and achieving carbon neutrality goals.