Coupling coordination, obstacle factors and predictive analysis of “Social Economic-Resource Ecological-Human Response” in Yiluo River Basin

Coordinating socio-economic development with resource-ecological protection is a core task for achieving ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. The key lies in revealing the mechanisms and transmission paths of policy interventions influencing resource-ecosystems through human behavior. However, existing research largely focuses on the binary coupling analysis of socio-economic and resource-ecosystem aspects at the basin or provincial/municipal levels, neglecting the actual responses and spatial heterogeneity of policies at the county/district level (the implementation unit). This results in a limited understanding of policy implementation effects and system coordination mechanisms. Furthermore, the mediating and feedback roles of proactive human responses in system regulation under policy contexts lack systematic characterization, hindering the scientific assessment of regional coordinated development levels. Therefore, this paper takes the Yiluo River Basin as the research object, constructing a socio-economic, resource-ecological and human response (F–E–H) system framework to systematically analyze the interaction paths and mechanisms among these three elements, aiming to provide theoretical support for policy effectiveness evaluation and refined basin governance. Using panel data from 25 districts and counties from 2012 to 2021, an integrated evaluation framework was constructed to assess the development levels of the F–E–H systems. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) model was applied to quantify the coordination relationships among the three subsystems, while the obstacle degree model was used to identify key factors constraining coordinated development. In addition, a gray forecasting model was employed to project the future evolution of the coupling coordination level. The results indicate that the overall development of the F–E–H systems in the Yiluo River Basin exhibited a steady upward trend during the study period. By 2021, the overall CCD exceeded 0.72, reaching a moderate coordination level, although significant constraints remained. At the guideline level, obstacles were mainly associated with the driving and human response subsystems, while at the indicator level, air quality and afforestation area were identified as the primary limiting factors. Under the combined influence of policy interventions and technological progress, the CCD of most districts and counties is projected to exceed 0.8 by 2030, indicating a transition toward advanced coordination. Based on these findings, this study highlights the critical role of human responses to policy measures in enhancing watershed coordination and proposes targeted governance strategies to promote balanced and high-quality development in the Yiluo River Basin.