A Global Fertilizer Price Projection Model for Market Disruptions

This working paper documents the NDSU-ARPC Global Fertilizer Model, a hybrid structural vector autoregression–partial equilibrium (SVAR–PE) framework developed to project fertilizer price dynamics under short-term supply disruptions. The model integrates country-specific affordability elasticities estimated from 25 years of bilateral trade data, an Engle–Granger error-correction mechanism governing price adjustment, and multi-channel disruption transmission including LNG feedstock, sulfur supply, and natural gas cost-push effects. The framework is applied to the 2026 Strait of Hormuz disruption under three reopening scenarios. Results indicate substantial price volatility and elevated fertilizer costs, with asymmetric impacts on agricultural producers due to rising input prices without corresponding increases in crop revenues.