Analysis confirms that increasing fertilizer costs threaten agricultural productivity, necessitating urgent policy intervention.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is best understood as an agricultural input shock, with the immediate risk of fertilizer affordability, especially for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. Higher costs reduce application rates, weaken yields, and invite policy responses that can deepen scarcity. The urgent task is to protect access to fertilizers during the next crop cycle.
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Arita et al. (2026) studied this question.
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