Research on the Trend of CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Scenario Prediction Before 2060—A Study of Hebei Province, China

Due to urbanization and industrialization, there are significant regional differences in carbon emissions, making it increasingly urgent and necessary to conduct an in-depth examination of carbon emission trends from energy consumption across various sectors at the provincial level. Taking Hebei Province, a major carbon-emitting province in China, as a case study, we analyzed carbon emissions from three perspectives: historical emissions, influencing factors, and scenario projections. First, we established a carbon emission inventory for energy consumption. Second, using the integrated LMDI-SD-MC framework, we constructed four subsystems economy, society, energy, and technology and employed three scenarios for forecasting. The results show that: (1) Carbon emissions in Hebei Province from 2003 to 2021 exhibited increased trend year by year, with the share of coal and coke decreasing and the share of natural gas increasing. The industry, residential, and transportation sectors accounted for more than 95% of total carbon emissions. (2) In terms of influencing factors, energy intensity and the level of economic development contributed the most significantly, with contribution rates of −75.97% and 195.97%, respectively. (3) Among the scenario projections, the low-carbon development scenario is the most suitable for Hebei Province, enabling the province to achieve its “Dual Carbon” goals as scheduled. Under the baseline development scenario, the peak is reached in 2040. Under the rapid development scenario, carbon emissions will reach 1130.86 106 tons by 2060. (4) Uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulation for all three scenarios showed errors within ±10%, indicating that the model results are robust and interpretable. This study provides a provincial level emission reduction perspective for China to achieve its “Dual Carbon” goals and sustainable development.