Spatiotemporal Pattern and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Carbon Storage in Hebei Province Based on Land Use

Scientifically assessing the spatiotemporal evolution of regional carbon storage is of great significance for achieving the “dual carbon” goals and optimizing territorial spatial patterns. This study integrated the PLUS and InVEST models to systematically reconstruct the spatiotemporal pattern of carbon storage in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2020, simulate its evolution trajectory under different scenarios in 2030, and identify its driving mechanisms using the GeoDetector model. The main findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, cropland was the dominant land use type in Hebei Province, and carbon storage exhibited a spatial pattern of “high in the northwest, low in the southeast.” Carbon storage increased from 16.23 × 108 t to 16.31 × 108 t, with a significantly slowed growth rate after 2010. (2) Multi-scenario simulations for 2030 indicate that under the natural development and economic priority scenarios, construction land expands significantly while cropland and grassland continue to decrease. In contrast, carbon storage shows an increasing trend under the ecological protection and cropland protection scenarios. (3) Driving factor analysis reveals that the spatial differentiation of carbon storage is primarily controlled by natural factors such as slope, elevation, and NDVI, while the explanatory power of anthropogenic factors, particularly population density, has significantly increased. The interaction between NDVI and slope exhibits a synergistic enhancement effect. This study elucidates the coupling mechanisms between land use change and carbon storage under different policy orientations, providing a scientific basis for territorial spatial optimization and the formulation of differentiated carbon neutrality pathways in Hebei Province.