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This study aims to analyze the climatic response patterns and potential habitat distribution of four spruce species in China.

April 23, 2026BMC Plant BiologyOpen Access

Climate response patterns and prediction of potential suitable distributions of four typical spruce species in China

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Analysis predicts suitable habitats of four spruce species in China, indicating significant declines and future changes.

This study aims to analyze the climatic response patterns and potential habitat distribution of four spruce species in China.
Analyzed 19 climatic, 8 soil, and 3 topographic factors affecting spruce distribution.
Employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to simulate habitat changes across historical and future scenarios.
Evaluated the accuracy of distribution models using Area Under the Curve (AUC) metrics.
AUC values exceeding 0.92 indicate high predictive accuracy for habitat models of all spruce species.
Historical periods show significant declines in suitable habitat for all species, particularly P. asperata and P. crassifolia.
Future projections suggest potential increases in habitat for P. koraiensis and P. schrenkiana, but declines for P. asperata and P. crassifolia.

Xiao et al. (2026) studied this question.

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