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April 26, 2026EurosurveillanceOpen Access

Predicting West Nile virus circulation: a 20-year spatiotemporal study in humans and animals in Spain, 2003 to 2022

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Authors

JGJosé‐María García‐CarrascoRRRaimundo RealIGIgnacio García‐Bocanegra

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Overview

Randomized trial shows increasing West Nile virus exposure risk in humans and animals in Spain, suggesting early warning potential for outbreaks.

Key Points

  • The study aims to identify and predict environmental drivers of West Nile virus (WNV) circulation across various ecological components in Spain.
  • Analyzed active and passive surveillance data on mosquitoes, birds, mammals, and humans from 2003 to 2022.
  • Developed spatiotemporal models incorporating current and lagged environmental variables.
  • Utilized a One Health approach to assess WNV exposure risk for humans and non-human hosts.
  • WNV exposure risk increased by 38% in humans, 19% in birds, and 17% in non-human mammals over 20 years.
  • Higher exposure risks in birds and non-human mammals linked to temperatures above 5 °C and 8 °C respectively.
  • Predictive models suggest annual human WNV transmission could be occurring more frequently than reported.

Cite This Study

García‐Carrasco et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69edac074a46254e215b3dfdhttps://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.es.2026.31.16.2500535
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