Flood Risk Management Under Return Period Scenarios Using Hydraulic Modeling: A Case Study of Keçi Stream

October 6, 2025Open Access

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Key Points

This work aims to evaluate flood risk and dynamics in Keçi Stream using hydraulic modeling techniques.
Utilized HEC-RAS software for one-dimensional hydraulic modeling.
Analyzed annual maximum flow data from 2014-2025 using Log-Pearson Type III distribution.
Developed four scenarios to assess the potential impacts of climate change and urbanization on flood flows.
Under basic scenario, modeling shows limited flooding outside the creek channel.
In high flow scenarios, flooding impacts approximately 600,000 m² and threatens around 200 structures, including homes and agricultural land.
Findings indicate current hydraulic infrastructure is inadequate for severe flooding, exacerbated by human pressures and climate variability.

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Assesses flood risk dynamics in Keçi Stream, suggesting improved management strategies are needed.

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Jafali et al. (2025) studied this question.

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