Validation, Recalibration, and Predictive Accuracy of Published VO2max Prediction Equations for Adults Ages 50–96 Yr

PURPOSE: Maximal oxygen uptake ( ) is the criterion measure of cardiorespiratory fitness. Lower cardiorespiratory fitness is a strong predictor of poor health outcomes, including all-cause mortality. Because testing is resource intensive, several non-exercise-based V˙O 2max prediction equations have been published. We assess these equations' ability to predict measured V˙O 2max , recalibrate these equations, and quantify the association of measured and predicted V˙O 2max with all-cause mortality. METHODS: Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging participants with valid V˙O 2max tests were included ( n = 1080). Using published V˙O 2max prediction equations, we calculated predicted V˙O 2max and present performance metrics before and after recalibration (deriving new regression estimates by regressing measured V˙O 2max on Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging covariates). Cox proportional hazards models were fit to quantify associations of measured, predicted, and recalibration-predicted values of V˙O 2max with mortality. RESULTS: Mean age and V˙O 2max were 69.0 ± 10.4 yr and 21.6 ± 5.9 mL·kg -1 ·min -1 , respectively. The prediction equations yielded root mean square error values ranging from 4.2 to 20.4 mL·kg -1 ·min -1 . After recalibration, these values decreased to 3.9-4.2 mL·kg -1 ·min -1 . Adjusting for all covariates, all-cause mortality risk was 66% lower for the highest quartile of measured V˙O 2max relative to the lowest. Predicted V˙O 2max variables yielded similar estimates in unadjusted models but were not robust to adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Measured V˙O 2max is an extremely strong predictor of all-cause mortality. Several published V˙O 2max prediction equations yielded the following: 1) reasonable performance metrics relative to measured V˙O 2max especially when recalibrated, and 2) all-cause mortality hazard ratios similar to those of measured V˙O 2max , especially when recalibrated, yet 3) were not robust to adjustment for basic demographic covariates likely because these were used in the equation for predicted V˙O 2max .