Integrating Ecosystem Value and Risk for Land Use Zoning: A Multi-Scenario Study of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China

To promote efficient land utilization while maintaining ecosystem stability, ecological management zoning in the Songnen Plain must balance ecological benefits and landscape ecological risk. Using land use data spanning 1990 to 2020, this study combined multi-scenario land use simulation with assessments of ecosystem service value (ESV) and landscape ecological risk (LER), and further applied these results to ecological management zoning. For 2030, land use configurations were projected across three alternative scenarios, namely cropland preservation (CP), ecological preservation (EP), and sustainable development (SD). ESV and LER were evaluated at a 5.1 km × 5.1 km grid scale based on 11,012 grid cells, and Z-score standardization was used to compare zoning results across scenarios. The results showed that land use patterns differed markedly among scenarios and led to asynchronous responses of ESV and LER. Compared with 2020, ESV under the CP, EP, and SD scenarios showed changes of −2.01%, 10.32%, and 2.56%. The EP scenario produced the highest ESV, but it was also associated with relatively high ecological risk, whereas the SD scenario showed lower integrated risk and a more balanced zoning pattern. Overall, the SD scenario was more suitable as the basis for optimizing ecological management zoning in the Songnen Plain. Future land governance should therefore promote coordinated optimization of ecological protection, risk control, and land use while ensuring food security.