What does this research mean for the field?

Coupling empirically derived vegetation thresholds with land-use scenario simulations provides an effective framework for spatially differentiated land-use regulation to maintain ecosystem services in water-limited regions. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.METHODOLOGICAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

Quantify historical ecosystem services from 2000 to 2023 and model multi-scenario land-use patterns for 2035 to guide ecological zoning in a semi-arid transition region.

September 3, 2026Ecological IndicatorsOpen Access

Multi-scenario zoning control of land use patterns for enhancing ecosystem services in a semi-arid city: A case study of Baicheng, China

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Quantify historical ecosystem services from 2000 to 2023 and model multi-scenario land-use patterns for 2035 to guide ecological zoning in a semi-arid transition region.
Quantified water conservation, sand fixation, carbon sequestration, and the Comprehensive Ecosystem Service Index (CESI) from 2000 to 2023.
Used constraint-line analysis to identify NDVI and fractional vegetation cover thresholds, delineating ecological security and restoration zones.
Simulated 2035 land use under natural development, cropland protection, and ecological protection scenarios using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model.
CESI and individual ecosystem services increased from 2000 to 2023, primarily driven by precipitation, NDVI (threshold 0.30), and fractional vegetation cover (threshold 0.71).
Constraint-line delineation assigned 26% of the study area to ecological security zones and 74% to ecological restoration zones.
Mean 2035 CESI remained slightly below the 2023 baseline across all projections, with cropland protection retaining the highest mean CESI, ecological protection minimizing spatial change, and natural development causing the lowest mean CESI.

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Implication

Scenario modeling reveals that cropland protection best preserves ecosystem services under future land-use shifts, highlighting the value of coupling vegetation thresholds with spatial zoning.

Cite This Study

Du et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a993503636c6408cfa7cbce https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115397

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Implication

Scenario modeling reveals that cropland protection best preserves ecosystem services under future land-use shifts, highlighting the value of coupling vegetation thresholds with spatial zoning.

Multi-scenario zoning control of land use patterns for enhancing ecosystem services in a semi-arid city: A case study of Baicheng, China

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Implication

Cite This Study

Multi-scenario zoning control of land use patterns for enhancing ecosystem services in a semi-arid city: A case study of Baicheng, China

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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