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May 3, 2026Open Access

Skill Demand Forecasting and Salary Prediction: A Multi-Granularity Analysis Using XGBoost

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Authors

MSMd Zahidul Islam Sany

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Implication

Randomized trial forecasts skill demand and salary in various markets, suggesting improved prediction methods.

Key Points

  • This research aims to forecast skill demand and predict salaries in the evolving labor market using advanced machine learning techniques.
  • Analyzed real job postings from 2021 to 2023, constructing a dataset with millions of rows.
  • Applied XGBoost with engineered features, including lagged values and rolling averages, for demand forecasting.
  • Evaluated model performance separately on months with zero demand and conducted feature importance and clustering analyses.
  • Achieved a symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE) of 10.01% for predicting active demand.
  • Generated an R² of 0.164 for salary predictions using various job-related attributes.
  • Found that a rolling average is the strongest predictor for skill demand, and occupation-level forecasts are most accurate.

Cite This Study

Md Zahidul Islam Sany (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69f6e60f8071d4f1bdfc6bb3https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19950108
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