Measuring Spatial Heterogeneity and Obstacle Factors of Urban–Rural Integration Development in Zhejiang Province, China

Using panel data from 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang Province (2014–2023), this study applies the entropy method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and an obstacle-factor diagnosis model to examine the spatiotemporal evolution, regional disparities, and constraints on urban–rural integration. The results show a steady upward trend in urban–rural integration alongside significant regional disparities. This reveals a complex pattern marked by the coexistence of convergence and divergence. Spatially, a clear “northeast–high, southwest–low” pattern is observed, with local adjustments within a stable framework, reflecting a “stable core and entrenched low-value areas.” Spatial agglomeration is characterized by “dual-core agglomeration with a predominantly non-significant periphery,” dominated by homogeneous “high–high” and “low–low” clusters, with no statistically significant spatial outliers. Obstacle factor diagnosis indicates markedly uneven constraining effects across subsystems, with spatial integration exhibiting the highest degree of obstacles. The composition of primary obstacle factors is highly stable, and obstacle structures differ significantly across city tiers. These findings elucidate the spatiotemporal evolution and core constraints of urban–rural integration in Zhejiang, offering a theoretical and decision-making basis for advancing high-quality urban–rural integration in the region.