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This research aims to develop a framework for evaluating economic sustainability in open-pit gold mining operations under volatile market conditions.

May 6, 2026SustainabilityOpen Access

A Risk-Based Decision Framework for Economic Sustainability in Open-Pit Gold Mining Using Monte Carlo Simulation

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This research aims to develop a framework for evaluating economic sustainability in open-pit gold mining operations under volatile market conditions.
Created a risk-based decision-support framework incorporating sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation
Used Net Present Value as the primary performance indicator
Conducted a case study at an open-pit gold mine in Kyrgyzstan comparing two operational scenarios
Evaluated the effects of key parameters like gold price and recovery rate on project outcomes
The median NPV was approximately 220 million USD with a 17.52% probability of negative NPV
Enhanced scenarios led to an IRR of around 13% indicating better financial performance
Critical factors influencing NPV were found to be gold price, mining cost, and recovery rate
The framework supports more efficient mineral resource utilization by integrating uncertainty in investment decisions

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Implication

Economic evaluation demonstrates improved financial performance in gold mining by assessing investment risk and resource utilization under uncertainty.

Cite This Study

Khodaeibabajan et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69fa986a04f884e66b532222 https://doi.org/10.3390/su18094448

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Implication

Economic evaluation demonstrates improved financial performance in gold mining by assessing investment risk and resource utilization under uncertainty.

A Risk-Based Decision Framework for Economic Sustainability in Open-Pit Gold Mining Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

A Risk-Based Decision Framework for Economic Sustainability in Open-Pit Gold Mining Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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