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This study aims to develop a framework for financial planning in gold mining that addresses price volatility risks.

June 6, 2026CommoditiesOpen Access

Scenario-Based Financial Planning in Gold Mining Under Commodity Price Uncertainty

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Randomized trial demonstrates financial impacts of price uncertainty in gold mining, suggesting improved planning methods.

This study aims to develop a framework for financial planning in gold mining that addresses price volatility risks.
Developed a simulation-based scenario planning framework integrating deterministic and stochastic modeling.
Utilized Monte Carlo simulations to assess the impact of gold price uncertainty.
Evaluated key financial indicators such as EBITDA, free cash flow, and net present value.
Approximately 28% of simulated realizations resulted in negative net present value outcomes under baseline assumptions.
Volatility significantly increased downside financial exposure despite positive expected returns.
Demonstrated that traditional deterministic planning methods are inadequate in capturing risks related to price fluctuations.

Choupi et al. (2026) studied this question.

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