Economic Analysis of Tropilaelaps spp. Infestation in Honeybees, Risk Commodities and Probabilities for Its Introduction in Türkiye

Honeybee pests represent the most significant expense for beekeepers worldwide.While Tropilaelaps spp.has not been detected in Trkiye, its presence in neighboring countries poses a critical biosecurity threat.This study conducts a comprehensive risk assessment using the RiskAMP Monte Carlo simulation engine to evaluate the likelihood of introduction and the subsequent economic impact.The model, based on 1.000 iterations, indicates a mean introduction probability of 0.37 per 1.000 events per day, with risk levels ranging from 0.17 to 0.6.The primary introduction pathways identified are bee plundering and the illegal trade of infected colonies, driven by regional price disparities.Our analysis highlights that Trkiye's Mediterranean and Aegean coasts are particularly vulnerable due to high humidity and year-round brood-rearing cycles, which facilitate the parasite's survival.The simulated economic model projects an average annual loss of $100 million, encompassing direct colony mortality, a significant reduction in honey and wax production, and increased management labor.Additionally, a fixed cost of $9 million is estimated for mandatory chemical treatments in high-risk climate zones.These findings emphasize the urgent need for enhanced border biosurveillance and regional emergency response plans to protect Trkiye's 9.2 million honeybee colonies and maintain national honey production stability.