Developing a multimodal transport simulation model using a case study of the Suburban Rail Loop East, Melbourne, Australia

• Agent-based models have been combined with activity-based models to build city-scale transport simulations. • A calibrated, validated model of demographic cohorts and intermodal trips was developed. • A Baseline scenario was compared with the Suburban Rail Loop East section with six train new stations. • Results indicate an increase in walking and reduction in driving with younger people more likely to use the new rail line. • Findings are useful for defining age and gender-based interventions for active transport. Agent- and activity-based transport models when combined link transport network flows to the individuals generating them, enabling exploration of the interplay between travel needs and transport network capacity. This study expanded a recently developed multi-modal agent- and activity-based transport model of Greater Melbourne, Australia by incorporating travel mode choices of demographic cohorts, a more accurate representation of public transport trips, and walking or driving to train stations. Separate mode choice models were developed for five unique cohorts of travellers. The model was calibrated and validated for each cohort using Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity data. The model simulated a Baseline scenario of existing transport infrastructure and an alternative scenario that includes Stage 1 of the Suburban Rail Loop, or SRL East, a new rail network traversing under-served middle suburbs. Results show SRL East will increase walking trips and average daily walking distances, and decrease car trips in areas surrounding SRL East train stations. The average walking distance between SRL areas increased between 4.9% and 11.1% for the respective cohorts, with the largest increase for those aged between 20 and 24. Results suggest SRL East will change people’s travel behaviour and influence the uptake of active transport, with the cohort results useful for age and gender-based interventions. The research is significant for showing SRL East’s impacts on active transport up-take and for influencing city-wide transport and urban planning. Future research modelling local and city-wide impacts of all stages of the SRL are warranted.