Predictive Maintenance Model for Ballast Tamping

In order to optimally schedule railway track maintenance operations, it is essential to accurately estimate future track conditions. This study proposes a railway track geometry degradation model that considers uncertainties in the forecast by defining a track geometry reliability parameter. The degradation model is integrated in a multiobjective optimization approach to assess railway track maintenance strategies considering a cost–reliability trade off. Finally, a numerical application of the model to a real case study is presented. The results show the usefulness of the proposed approach to guarantee a required track geometry performance with effective maintenance investments.