OBJECTIVE: To determine whether components of the metabolic syndrome precede the 5-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A population of individuals aged 43-84 years was evaluated from 1988 to 1990 and again 5 years later. Medical history, blood pressure, and laboratory measures were obtained at both examinations following the same protocols. Subjects without diabetes were classified according to level of glycemia, high blood pressure, high-risk lipid levels, high uric acid levels, and proteinuria at baseline. History of incident myocardial infarction, angina, stroke, and diabetes was obtained at follow-up. RESULTS: Of the 4,423 subjects without diabetes, 6.9% had elevated levels of glycemia, 18.4% had high blood pressure, 82.7% had high-risk lipid levels (either high serum total cholesterol or low HDL cholesterol or high ratio of these two levels), 27% had elevated uric acid levels, 33.2% had high BMI, and 3.3% had proteinuria (> or =30 mg/dl). The risk of incident cardiovascular disease 5 years later increased with the number of the components present; 2.5% of those with one component developed cardiovascular disease, whereas 14.9% of those with four or more components developed cardiovascular disease. Of those with one component, diabetes developed in 1.1% 5 years later, whereas diabetes developed in 17.9% of those with four or more components. CONCLUSIONS: Components of the metabolic syndrome are common and are associated with incident cardiovascular disease and diabetes after 5 years. Interventions to alter BMI, lipid levels, and blood pressure may decrease incident diabetes and cardiovascular disease.
Klein et al. (2002) studied this question.