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May 16, 2026The Astronomical Journal2 citationsOpen Access

TTV-not-so-fast: Uniqueness and Degeneracy in Perturbing Planet Parameters

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CLCaleb LammersJWJoshua N. Winn

Key Points

  • This research aims to reassess how nontransiting planets are characterized using transit timing variations (TTVs).
  • Evaluated 12 published cases of nontransiting planets characterized by TTVs.
  • Identified unique solutions and complex degeneracies in different planetary systems.
  • Assessed the impact of short-timescale TTV structures and aliasing on solution uniqueness.
  • Only two systems (KOI-142, Kepler-419) show compelling evidence for unique solutions.
  • Another two systems (KOI-872, KOI-884) have best solutions amid degeneracies.
  • Six systems exhibit multiple viable solutions with different perturbing planets, while two systems show weak evidence for any perturbing planet.

Abstract

Abstract Nontransiting planets can reveal themselves through transit timing variations (TTVs), but inferring the properties of the perturbing planet is a highly degenerate inverse problem. We present a systematic reassessment of all 12 published cases in which a nontransiting planet was claimed to have been uniquely characterized using TTVs. Two systems (KOI-142 and Kepler-419) stand out clearly with compelling evidence for unique solutions. Two other systems (KOI-872 and KOI-884) exhibit complex degeneracies, but the data are just precise enough to single out a best solution. Six systems (Kepler-82, Kepler-411, Kepler-725, KOI-134, Kepler-138, and TOI-4562) admit multiple viable solutions involving very different perturbing planets. In the remaining two systems (WASP-18 and WASP-126), the evidence for any perturbing planet is weak. We find that a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for a unique solution is the detection of short-timescale TTV structure associated with conjunctions, either in the near-resonant “chopping” regime or in eccentric systems with phase-dependent close approaches. In some systems, aliasing of the synodic period leads to ambiguities in associating observed TTV timescales with physical timescales, threatening uniqueness. Our results highlight the difficulty of achieving unique solutions in TTV inversions and underscore the need for long time baselines, accurate timing uncertainties, and complementary constraints from radial velocities or other observations when characterizing nontransiting planets.

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Cite This Study

Lammers et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a0808afa487c87a6a40ae70https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/ae61a3
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