Factors in the Long-Term Sustainability of Economic Growth in the Republic of Armenia

This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the long-term economic growth trajectory in Armenia. The research utilizes the Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM) to assess the impact of total factor productivity (TFP), physical capital, and human capital on per capita GDP dynamics through 2100. The results of scenario-based modeling made it possible to identify the projected decline in the working-age population as the key long-term constraint on growth. However, the existing levels of physical capital and the quality of human capital are deemed sufficient to sustain economic expansion. The calculations indicate that under a pessimistic TFP growth scenario, per capita GDP growth could decline to 0.5% in the forecast period, while an optimistic scenario could see growth reach 3.49%. The study concludes by underscoring the necessity for a forward-looking, comprehensive national strategy. Such a policy framework should aim to counteract demographic and migratory declines in the labor force, enhance labor productivity, and accelerate technological modernization.