Why the study?
With the increasing global prevalence of diabetes mellitus, identifying risk factors is important, prompting investigation into the association between systolic blood pressure changes and incident diabetes.
Is a change in systolic blood pressure associated with the incidence of diabetes mellitus in a general screening population?
Population
152,547 participants in the Korean National Health Insurance Service Health Screening Database
Comparison
SBP decrease (≥10 mm Hg) vs no change (<10 mm Hg) vs increase (≥10 mm Hg)
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Follow-up
Median 14.3 years
Key result
Changes in systolic blood pressure of ≥10 mm Hg, whether a decrease (HR 1.06 in males) or an increase (HR 1.10 in males), were associated with a higher risk of new-onset diabetes mellitus compared to no change.
Authors
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No immediate practice change from SBP fluctuations alone; leaves open causality in this observational cohort.
Cohort (n=152,547)
Yes
Is a change in systolic blood pressure associated with the incidence of diabetes mellitus in a general screening population?
Effect estimate: HR 1.06 (95% CI 1.02-1.10)
Both decreases and increases in systolic blood pressure of ≥10 mm Hg are associated with a slightly increased risk of incident diabetes mellitus compared to stable blood pressure.
You et al. (2025) conducted a cohort in Diabetes mellitus (n=152,547). Change in systolic blood pressure (≥10 mm Hg decrease or increase) vs. No change in systolic blood pressure (<10 mm Hg) was evaluated on Incidence of diabetes mellitus (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02-1.10). Changes in systolic blood pressure of ≥10 mm Hg, whether a decrease (HR 1.06 in males) or an increase (HR 1.10 in males), were associated with a higher risk of new-onset diabetes mellitus compared to no change.