Determinants of Tracking Intentions, and Actual Education Choices Among Junior High School Students in Rural China

This article analyzes rural middle school students' tracking intentions (academic high school, vocational high school, or going to work), actual education choices, and the factors affecting them, using a random sampled baseline survey and follow-up survey of 2,216 second-year students residing outside of county seats in forty-one impoverished counties in a western province of China. We find that the path of vocational high school is not preferred by rural middle school students. Most students will select academic high school over vocational high school. But actual tracking results seem to indicate that the high school dreams of a considerable proportion of students are interrupted or shattered. We use multiple logistic regression to analyze factors influencing tracking intentions and actual education choices, including student grades, parents' education level, per capita household income, household type, parents' migrant worker status, and awareness of the government policy of financial aid for vocational students. We briefly discuss social stratification and the social and economic implications of rural middle school students' education choices, and question some of the policies for developing secondary vocational education.