Estimation of the reproductive number of COVID-19 in Iran and studying the role of health measures and social restrictions in changes of this index

Background & Aims:The reproductive number of coronavirus disease 2019 can reflect what level of health measures and social restrictions are needed to control the disease.Hence, this study was aimed to estimate the reproductive number of COVID-19 in Iran and study the role of health measures and social restrictions in changes of this index. Materials & Methods:In this study, the data required to estimate the reproductive number of COVID-19 was collected from 4372 people with COVID-19 referred to Dr. Masih Daneshvari Hospital in Tehran and also the statistics of the Ministry of Health of Iran.The role of health measures and social restrictions was also examined in changing this number. Results:Based on the study results, the reproductive number of COVID-19 was estimated to be about 2.75 in Iran.Considering a minimum of 10% and a maximum of 90% for the number of health measures and social restrictions, this number would be decreased from 2.48 to 0.28, respectively.Based on these results, the minimum rate of health measures and social restrictions to reduce the reproductive number of COVID-19 was 70% in Iran.At this level of health measures and social restrictions, the reproductive number of COVID-19 would be 0.82. Conclusion:Estimating the reproduction number of COVID-19 and studying the role of health measures and social restrictions on the changes in this number will provide an appropriate level of preventive measures to control the pandemic of this disease.