Canada generates approximately 3.3 Mt of plastic waste annually, of which only 9% is recycled (8% mechanically and 1% chemically), while 86% is landfilled. Selecting an appropriate waste-to-energy (WtE) pathway for the non-recycled fraction requires a transparent, plastic-specific framework that reflects Canada’s diverse provincial conditions. This study evaluates three WtE technologies—incineration, gasification, and pyrolysis—using an integrated multi-criteria decision-making approach combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The framework assesses twelve sub-criteria across four dimensions (economic, environmental, technical, and policy/circular economy), tested under five weighting scenarios and a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that pyrolysis ranks first across all scenarios, driven by superior economic and environmental performance, including a net profit of CAD 377/t (compared to CAD 177/t for gasification and –CAD 39/t for incineration), a 2.5-year payback period, and lower lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions (470–876 kg CO 2 -eq/t versus 1245 kg CO 2 -eq/t for incineration). Monte Carlo results confirm positive Net Present Value (NPV) for pyrolysis in 100% of cases. Regional analysis across five provinces indicates consistent economic viability, supporting a phased national deployment aligned with carbon pricing and Clean Fuel Regulations.
Golkar et al. (Thu,) studied this question.