The inefficiency of EU leverage in Serbia during the Russia-Ukraine war

ABSTRACTThe war in Ukraine has exposed a rift between Serbia and the Brussels administration. Serbia has been accused of aligning itself with Russia as opposed to the strictly pro-Ukrainian EU. While Serbian foreign policy can be argued to be primarily influenced by Belgrade's pan-Slavic relationship with Moscow, or authoritarian solidarity due to Serbia's own semi-authoritarian character, this study argues that Serbia's foreign policy reflects the current setting and the opportunities created by the major power rivalry. We reflect on the inefficiency of the EU norm and value promotion, and the rising influence of Russia and China in the Western Balkan region, which has been undermining the EU's push for democratization and Europeanization. We argue that the Serbian foreign policy aims to maintain the domestic regime's power and maximize benefits by exploiting the escalating rivalry between the two blocs rather than to pose a direct normative challenge to the established EU standards.KEYWORDS: EUSerbiageopoliticsRusso-Ukrainian warSerbian progressive party Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. For the impact of the EU on the Western Balkans see Cooley (Citation2019), Džankić et al. (Citation2019), Elbasani (Citation2013), Mendelski (Citation2019), Pavlović (Citation2023), Radeljić (Citation2013), Radeljić (Citation2018), Radeljić (Citation2019b).2. In addition, see Gafuri and Muftuler-Bac (Citation2021), Grimm and Mathis (Citation2015), Kmezić and Bieber (Citation2017), Smith et al. (Citation2021), Soyaltin-Colella (Citation2022a), Zweers et al. (Citation2022).3. This section largely draws from Radeljić (Citation2017b), Radeljić (Citation2018), Radeljić (Citation2019b), Radeljić (Citation2019a), Radeljić and Đorđević (Citation2020).4. For the accounts that highlight the rising authoritarian tendencies in Serbia, see Castaldo (Citation2020), Eror (Citation2018), Gafuri and Muftuler-Bac (Citation2021), Jeftić (Citation2023), Pavlović (Citation2020), Radeljić (Citation2018), Radeljić (Citation2019a), Tomić and Pavlović (Citation2023).5. For Serbia's status as a hybrid regime, see Fiket and Đorđević (Citation2022).6. It is also highlighted that the creation of an uneven playing field for competing parties as a result of 'media bias and abuse of government resources' undermined the conduct of a free and fair democratic process in 2016 election (NDI National Democratic Institute Citation2016, 5).7. For the EU's reactions to successive Serbian elections, see Radeljić and Đorđević (Citation2020, 602–603).8. In addition, see Ilić (Citation2022), Kmezić and Bieber (Citation2017), Soyaltin-Colella (Citation2022b).9. It is noteworthy to highlight that there is a vast amount of literature stemming from neoclassical realism that accounts for both levels of analysis (international and internal). For examples, see Götz (Citation2021), Gvalia et al. (Citation2019), Lobell et al. (Citation2009), Meibauer (Citation2020), Rose (Citation1998).Additional informationNotes on contributorsBranislav RadeljićBranislav Radeljić is Professor of International Relations in the Department of Government and Society, United Arab Emirates University. In addition, he serves as Visiting Professor of European Politics at Nebrija University. His scholarly interests focus on European and Middle Eastern political and socio-economic developments. Outside academia, on an occasional basis, he conducts research and provides consultancy services within his area of expertise. He is also a registered expert witness for asylum, refugee, and immigration cases, and he covers Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Russia, Serbia, and Turkey.M. Cüneyt ÖzşahinM. Cüneyt Özşahin is Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Necmettin Erbakan University. His research interests include theories of international relations, security studies, and Turkish politics. His publications have appeared in various edited volumes and journals, most recently in Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Contemporary Review of the Middle East, and Europe-Asia Studies. He is also a frequent contributor to Turkish media outlets, writing on regional as well as domestic politics and security.