Does a multi-biomarker machine learning model improve the prediction of 2-year mortality in patients with acute HFpEF compared to standard clinical models?
A machine-learning model incorporating multiple circulating biomarkers significantly improves the prediction of long-term mortality in patients with acute HFpEF compared to traditional clinical risk scores.
Background: Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is increasingly recognized as a major global public health burden and lacks effective risk stratification. We aimed to assess a multi-biomarker model in improving risk prediction in HFpEF. Methods: We analyzed 18 biomarkers from the main pathophysiological domains of HF in 380 patients hospitalized for HFpEF from a prospective cohort. The association between these biomarkers and 2-year risk of all-cause death was assessed by Cox proportional hazards model. Support vector machine (SVM), a supervised machine learning method, was used to develop a prediction model of 2-year all-cause and cardiovascular death using a combination of 18 biomarkers and clinical indicators. The improvement of this model was evaluated by c-statistics, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Results: The median age of patients was 71-years, and 50.5% were female. Multiple biomarkers independently predicted the 2-year risk of death in Cox regression model, including N-terminal pro B-type brain-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-TnT), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα), endoglin, and 3 biomarkers of extracellular matrix turnover [tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases (TIMP)-1, matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-2, and MMP-9) (FDR 0.05). The SVM model effectively predicted the 2-year risk of all-cause death in patients with acute HFpEF in training set (AUC 0.834, 95% CI: 0.771–0.895) and validation set (AUC 0.798, 95% CI: 0.719–0.877). The NRI and IDI indicated that the SVM model significantly improved patient classification compared to the reference model in both sets ( p 0.05). Conclusions: Multiple circulating biomarkers coupled with an appropriate machine-learning method could effectively predict the risk of long-term mortality in patients with acute HFpEF. It is a promising strategy for improving risk stratification in HFpEF.
Gao et al. (2021) studied this question.
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