On Economic Strategy and Economic Policy in Russia Under Current Conditions

In the face of clear limitations of the current economic model, the formation of a long-term vision of its development is of particular importance in each country. It is essential to decide on two issues on a purely pragmatic basis: the relative importance of internal and external factors and the role that the state should play in the economy. The strategy developed on this basis should determine the specifics of economic policy. Russia has developed an original holistic model of macroeconomic policy aimed at countering the "Dutch disease." Within its framework, the financial component is used not only for classical functions, but also as a tool to influence the monetary sphere. The "division of labour" in this area between the monetary and financial authorities is aimed at targeting not one but two indicators - the level of inflation and exchange rate - to simultaneously maintain the high efficiency of fuel and raw materials exports and to protect from competition domestic production oriented to the national market. But the implementation of this model entails serious costs - the freezing of significant resources in international reserves, with the impossibility of using them as a “safety bag”, high interest rate and, ultimately, prolonged stagnation. To move towards a sustainable development and modernization strategy, a whole range of interconnected changes to fiscal and monetary policy, on the one hand, and industrial policy, on the other, are proposed. At the same time, the author advocates a return to the classical division of functions between monetary and financial power, and in the sphere of monetary policy - for the transition to the regime of "dirty float" of the ruble and the use of economic instruments limiting the cross-border movement of speculative capital. The importance of implementing structural reforms, primarily concerning the economic behavior of the state, is emphasized.